Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 15.064877 17.184297 19.455894 22.067108 24.981056 28.127972 31.778750
2025-08-31 11.716277 14.569482 17.857636 21.908539 26.744774 32.312443 39.184920
2025-09-07 10.090554 13.264567 17.095562 22.025004 28.160773 35.504828 44.914092
2025-09-14 9.059655 12.511402 16.850968 22.650538 30.133642 39.392640 51.634702
2025-09-21 7.941053 11.468822 16.070130 22.431303 30.904267 41.697530 56.364125
2025-09-28 6.754378 10.189784 14.833030 21.464083 30.567594 42.486490 59.102803
2025-10-05 6.296789 9.856550 14.814201 22.088779 32.328820 46.041278 65.561942
2025-10-12 5.847362 9.480928 14.687304 22.524405 33.817524 49.260191 71.672852
2025-10-19 5.291874 8.888207 14.189374 22.373394 34.440910 51.283642 76.191692
2025-10-26 4.789152 8.324161 13.679679 22.150644 34.918373 53.087438 80.437144
2025-11-02 4.408565 7.914096 13.363220 22.179319 35.740023 55.385353 85.441315
2025-11-09 4.104294 7.597692 13.161747 22.357380 36.773377 58.007953 90.987903
2025-11-16 3.769080 7.206123 12.821643 22.309996 37.480249 60.211448 96.064334
2025-11-23 3.440013 6.794388 12.416576 22.127937 37.960057 62.086342 100.719618
2025-11-30 3.203515 6.521533 12.215771 22.253106 38.910791 64.687803 106.534460
2025-12-07 3.075403 6.433085 12.318466 22.881571 40.690394 68.624021 114.521166
2025-12-14 2.819918 6.082204 11.937763 22.661320 41.060370 70.355168 119.132526
2025-12-21 2.475863 5.527220 11.151557 21.685059 40.111671 69.937725 120.328002
2025-12-28 2.392806 5.478406 11.277188 22.315500 41.897406 73.971313 128.727728
2026-01-04 2.289139 5.377918 11.298241 22.755004 43.368037 77.535099 136.477671
2026-01-11 2.118119 5.121545 11.005934 22.602650 43.794516 79.383105 141.484349
2026-01-18 1.953149 4.861698 10.686963 22.377892 44.074472 80.984784 146.123058
2026-01-25 1.830334 4.681472 10.510096 22.406826 44.802534 83.358103 152.107534